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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."